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Called 23 days ago · 6-12 months
#1 Follow “The current wave of hyped IPOs is structurally rigged to enrich insiders and underwriters at retail's expense, so the newly-public 'everybody's cheering for' names are overvalued and will crash after the pop.”
The trades · 4 −1.1% since called
Short Renaissance IPO ETF SHORT
ETF · options · 6-12 months
The IPO ETF holds a rolling basket of the largest recently-listed US companies at their post-pop valuations — the exact cohort the thesis says is engineered to fade. Shorting it is the cleanest broad expression: you profit as the freshly-minted names revert once the underwriting hype and buy-side allocation game wear off.
CoreWeave puts SHORT
Equity · options · 3-9 months
CoreWeave is the poster child of the 2025 AI-IPO frenzy — a debt-laden, single-customer-concentrated cloud lessor that priced into euphoria. Buying puts expresses the 'scam fades' thesis with defined risk (max loss = premium) and huge convexity if the stock re-rates toward fundamentals rather than narrative.
Short Circle Internet Group SHORT
Equity · options · 3-9 months
Circle's stablecoin IPO more than tripled on debut — the definitive 'everybody's cheering' listing priced at a multiple of any sane earnings base. Shorting the equity captures the collapse from momentum valuation back to reality. This is a naked short on a volatile momentum name: a short squeeze or margin call can force losses well beyond your stake.
Lock-up expiration short basket SHORT
options · 1-4 months per name
The precise mechanism of the 'scam' is the 180-day insider lock-up: after the pop, early backers and employees are unlocked to dump into a thin float. Shorting recent hyped IPOs in the two to four weeks approaching their lock-up cliff targets the exact moment supply floods the market. This is a rotating strategy across small floats, which are squeeze-prone — losses can exceed the amount committed.
Tracking since 14 Jul equal-weighted · 4 trades